Dates & Figs – June 2026

In Dates & Figs
June 2, 2026
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Midterm Wake-Up Call for Trump: Study Shows Nonunion Construction Workers Built the GOP Coalition

Associated Builders and Contractors released the results of a new survey conducted by The Harris Poll in six battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—which found that nonunion skilled trades workers—who make up nearly 90% of the construction workforce—are an influential voting bloc in elections and were the driving force behind Republicans’ success in 2024, including the election of President Donald Trump.

“While the working-class identity has too often been conflated with union affiliation, the data shows that nonunion construction workers voted for President Trump at a significantly higher rate in 2024,” said Michael Bellaman, ABC president and CEO. “In fact, through measures of party alignment, candidate support and policy preferences, nonunion workers in the trades consistently align more closely with the GOP than their union counterparts.

“The survey also makes it clear that working-class support should not be confused with union leadership support,” said Bellaman. “Nonunion construction workers not only supported President Trump at a significantly higher rate than union workers in 2024, but they also vastly outnumber union workers in the battleground states that will determine control of Congress next year.

“Despite this political reality, the Trump administration continues to support the controversial project labor agreement mandate that President Joe Biden established via executive order,” said Bellaman. “The PLA mandate tells nonunion construction workers they are unworthy of participating in federally funded projects, which risks alienating a workforce that forms a critical part of the GOP’s electoral base, particularly in swing states where nonunion workers play an outsized role.

“Ahead of the midterms, President Trump and his administration have a choice,” said Bellaman. “They can reverse course and allow all workers, including the nonunion workers who powered their 2024 victory, to participate on federal projects or they can continue appeasing union leadership through policies that restrict competition, raise costs and alienate the overwhelming majority of the construction workforce.

“In the 2026 midterms and beyond, Republicans who embrace fair and open competition will see continued support from the majority of skilled trades workers in their states and districts,” said Bellaman. “Those who support government-mandated project labor agreements in the hope that appeasing union bosses will win over rank-and-file workers are chasing a bargain the data shows does not exist.”

Highlights from the study include:

Nonunion construction workers outnumber union workers in presidential swing states, comprising 76%-98% of the construction workforce electorate.
Merit shop support for President Trump exceeded union support across all six swing states:
In Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, nonunion workers supported President Trump at a rate 19 points higher than union workers.
In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, nonunion workers supported President Trump at a rate 7 points higher than union workers.
Skilled trades workers oppose union preferences in federal contracting by a 2-to-1 margin.

When asked whether the federal government should have the flexibility to select contractors based on best value for taxpayers, rather than union affiliation, 83% of nonunion construction workers agreed or strongly agreed and 73% of union construction workers agreed or strongly agreed.

Nonresidential Construction Adds Healthy 19,000 Jobs in April

The construction industry added 9,000 jobs on net in April, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a year-over-year basis, industry employment has expanded by 50,000 jobs, an increase of 0.6%.

Nonresidential construction employment increased by 19,000 positions, with gains in all three subcategories. Nonresidential specialty traded added the most jobs, increasing by 12,600 positions. Nonresidential building and heavy and civil engineering added 5,600 and 800 jobs, respectively, in April.

The construction unemployment rate was 3.8% in April. Unemployment across all industries remained unchanged at 4.3% and is 0.1 percentage point higher than it was a year ago.

“Construction employment expanded modestly in April, but that’s largely due to weakness on the residential side of the industry,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “Nonresidential construction employment rose at a healthy pace for the month and is up a respectable 2.0% over the past year. This strength can be traced to surging data center construction spending, which is up 34% over the past year. It also helps explain why ABC member expectations for hiring remain elevated, according to ABC’s Construction Confidence Index, despite tepid industrywide job growth.”

Visit abc.org/economics for the Construction Backlog Indicator and Construction Confidence Index, plus analysis of spending, employment, job openings and the Producer Price Index.

Contractor Backlog and Confidence Rise Again in April, Buoyed by Data

Associated Builders and Contractors reported in May that its Construction Backlog Indicator rose to 8.8 months in April, according to an ABC member survey conducted from April 20 to May 4. The reading is up 0.2 months from March and up 0.1 months from April 2025.

View ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator and Construction Confidence Index for April. View the full Construction Backlog Indicator and Construction Confidence Index data series.

Backlog surged for contractors with greater than $100 million in annual revenues and is now 2.2 months higher than during April 2025. All other contractor size categories have smaller backlog than they did one year ago.

ABC’s Construction Confidence Index readings for sales, profit margins and staffing levels also increased in April. The readings for all three components are higher than they were one year ago and remain above the threshold of 50, indicating expectations for growth over the next six months.

“While backlog surged to a 10-month high in April, the industry’s recent momentum is highly concentrated among a subset of contractors,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “Booming data center construction has almost exclusively benefited the largest ABC members; 42% of contractors with more than $100 million in annual revenues are under contract to work on data center projects. The same is true for just 7% of contractors with less than $100 million in annual revenues. Critically, contractors under contract to work on data centers have significantly longer backlog (12.2 months) than those that are not (8.3 months).

“Despite diverging levels of backlog, ABC contractor members of all sizes remain confident about the outlook,” said Basu. “Just 1 in 5 expect their profit margins to shrink over the next six months, the fewest since January 2025, and contractors are similarly upbeat about their sales and staffing levels. The upshot is that weak construction spending data, the recent rise in oil prices and emerging materials price escalation have not diminished ABC member confidence.”

Dodge Momentum Index

Dodge Momentum Index Accelerates 6% in April

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 6.2% in April to 264.2 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised March reading of 248.8. Over the month, commercial planning grew 8.1% and institutional planning momentum improved 1.5%.

“After three months of slowing momentum, nonresidential planning began to find its footing in April,” said Sarah Martin, Director of Economic Research at Dodge Construction Network. “Data centers remain the largest driver behind growth in the Dodge Momentum Index, but several other sectors appeared to stabilize over the month. Macroeconomic risks remain weighted to the downside, with labor shortages, higher material costs and supply chain disruptions weighing on owner confidence in the near-term.”

Planning activity for traditional office buildings, data centers, warehouses, hotels and parking garages grew in April, while retail store planning slowed pace. On the institutional side, education and healthcare planning re-accelerated, while recreational, public and religious planning slowed down over the month. Year-over-year, the DMI was up 14.1% when compared to April 2025. The commercial segment was up 37.2% (+5.8% when data centers are removed) and the institutional segment was up 28.8% over the same period.

A total of 44 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning throughout March. The largest of those projects included the $500 million Google Data Center (Building One) in Buffalo, West Virginia, the $470 million Stargate Data Center (Freebird Phase 2) in Burlington, Texas and the $450 million Jay Data Center in Jay, Maine. The largest institutional projects were the $256 million Navy Seal Museum in San Diego, California, the $178 million Lurie Children’s Hospital in Downer’s Grove, Illinois, and the $175 million Unaccompanied Housing improvement project at Naval Base Coronado in California.

The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.

Construction Starts Power On, Up 9% in April

Total construction starts rose 9.0% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.33 trillion, according to Dodge Construction Network. Nonresidential building starts grew by 18.6%, nonbuilding starts increased 7.0%, and residential starts fell 0.7% over the month. On a year-to-date basis, total construction starts were up 5.4% through April. Nonresidential starts were up 9.1%, nonbuilding starts improved by 12.3%, and residential starts were down 4.5% over the same period. For the 12 months ending April 2026, total construction starts were up 8.1% from the 12 months ending April 2025. Residential starts were down 4.4%, nonresidential starts were up 10.0% and nonbuilding was up 19.5%.

“April’s construction starts were robust with only three categories posting month over month losses,” stated Eric Gaus, Chief Economist of Dodge Construction Network. “Large data centers and energy generation supported the growth, but 9 of the 15 categories saw double or triple digit growth.”

Nonresidential

Nonresidential building starts improved 18.6% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $550 billion. Commercial starts were up 41.4%, mostly driven by the 46.1% m/m increase in offices and data centers, however all sectors experienced growth; parking garages (120.4% m/m), warehouses (+25.0% m/m), hotels (+12.8% m/m), and stores (+5.0% m/m). Institutional starts gained 12.3% over the month, with all sub-categories experiencing growth; other institutional categories (+15.1% m/m), education (+13.2% m/m), and healthcare (+4.6%). Manufacturing construction gave up 29.3% m/m after an astounding 251.4% growth in March. On a year-to-date basis through April, nonresidential starts are up 9.1%. Commercial and industrial construction gained 30.4%, while institutional starts are down 12.1% over the same period.

For the 12 months ending April 2026, total nonresidential starts were up 10.0% compared to the 12 months ending April 2025. Commercial starts were up 25.1%, institutional starts decreased 3.8%, and manufacturing starts were up 20.9% over the same period.

The largest nonresidential building projects to break ground in April were the $5.0 billion Provident/PowerHouse Prairie Ridge Data Center Phase 1 in Midlothian, TX, the $1.9 billion SK Hynix HBM Advanced Packaging & R&D Hub project in West Lafayette, IN, and the $1.3 million Stargate Data Center Campus project in Saline Township, MI.

Nonbuilding

Nonbuilding construction starts increased 7.0% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $394 billion. Strong double digit gains in miscellaneous nonbuilding (+18.1% m/m), highways and bridges (+17.0% m/m) and environmental public works (+16.3% m/m) reversed losses from the previous month. Electric power/utilities segment fell 9.7% but levels remain bolstered by large natural gas facilities and large renewable projects. On a year-to-date basis through April, nonbuilding construction was up 12.3% alongside the 79.3% year-to-date growth in electric power/utilities. The remaining public works sectors, however, are seeing deeper year-to-date declines.

For the 12 months ending April 2026, total nonbuilding starts were up 19.5%. Environmental public works fell by 2.2% compared to the 12 months ending April 2025. Highway and bridge starts were down 0.9%, miscellaneous nonbuilding starts were up 35.6% and utility/gas starts increased 62.0% over the same period.

The largest nonbuilding projects to break ground in April included the $3.8 billion Bison Generation Station Natural Gas Power Plant in ND, the $3.3 billion Cayuga Station Natural Gas Energy Replacement in Cayuga, IN, and the $1.0 billion Tradepoint Atlantic Container Terminal in Edgemere, MD.

Residential

Residential building starts fell by 0.7% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $383 billion. Single family starts increased 4.2% m/m, and multifamily starts fell 7.2% m/m. On a year-to-date basis, residential starts are down 4.5%, with single family starts down 10.9% and multifamily starts up 7.9%.

For the 12 months ending April 2026, total residential starts fell 4.4%. Single family starts fell 15.0% compared to the 12 months ending April 2025, and multifamily starts increased 17.4% over the same period.

The largest multifamily structures to break ground in April were the $850 million Gowanus Wharf 175 3rd Street Mixed Use Development in Gowanus, NY, the $354 million Deerfield Episcopal Retirement Community III (Expansion) project Asheville, NC and $303 million Archer Towers Mixed Use Development-Garage (Phase 2) project in Jamaica, NY.

Regionally, total construction starts in April rose in the Midwest (+66.9% m/m), the Northeast (+19.9% m/m), and the South Atlantic (+9.3% m/m). Meanwhile, the South Central (-14.5% m/m), and the West (-8.6% m/m) saw declines.

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About Dodge Construction Network
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