Preparing your organization for the inevitable “hiccup” or roadblock

By Gregg M. Schoppman, FMI Corp

Reflecting on the worldwide cyber outage in mid-2025 has been an eye-opening experience. This is certainly not about technology or redundancy, but there are certainly nuggets that could be gathered in that bucket. This is about how the firm prepares for the hiccup or inevitable “rock in the road” that will occur in the business or on a project.

There are two observations that take center stage. The first was the football field-sized queue that was in one of the major airports. Once again, hardly unexpected in light of the thousands of stranded travelers. However, what was shocking was the two airport representatives servicing the overwhelming number of frustrated passengers. It was safe to say they probably had the worst job in the world that day. Secondly, there was the gate agent in that same airport, who by all accounts was an established senior leader, as designated by the color of their blazer. However, it was quickly apparent that this person was overwhelmed and had no ability to make positive changes or even deal with the pressure of the moment. One could make an argument that no one is prepared for an unprecedented event such as the internet being turned off. On the other hand, isn’t it incumbent on leaders to equip their teams to prepare for the unexpected? Realistically, airlines are constantly playing “defense” and there seem to be so many instances like they are seeing a delayed flight for the first time ever.

If the pandemic should have taught us all one thing, it is that you never know what is coming down the line. In the last couple of years, it seems like everyone is collecting “unprecedented world events” like one collects baseball cards. The “that will never happen” happens with such frequency that we are almost numb. Yet, whether it is some massive “happening” or even a simple project roadblock, there appears to be a naivete that permeates even the most seasoned business leader. No one wants to always play the devil’s advocate, anticipating the worst-case scenario – if you aren’t careful, you quickly become branded as the “Debbie Downer” (insert the blaring trumpet). However, there has to be a sense of realism in business leadership and project leadership that worse case scenarios have to be considered and anticipated. There is the old adage that you plan for the worst and hope/work for the best. Advice has never been wiser but how many organizations have contingency plans that are articulated, strategized and ultimately implemented effectively and efficiently?

Business Scale

Reflecting on the Pandemic often gives people a bad case of hives. Whether it was thinking about social distancing, orchestrating effective supply chain management or thinking about the long-range ramifications of the firm’s backlog, there is no shortage of lessons learned. However, how many businesses had that “Black Swan Plan” that was expeditiously engaged when the first “quarantine” was engaged? Realistically, there were probably a few firms, if any, that had a Pandemic Response Kit. More than likely, it was stored with the Zombie Apocalypse Kit. However, while not every emergency will shutter the world, there are plenty of events or scenarios that will have a long lead in to allow leadership to take the respective steps. For instance, one of more common events is a hurricane. By no means do we think that living through a hurricane is easier than a pandemic or cyber outage. The point is that tropical events normally provide some notice of their impending arrival, coupled with the ubiquitous “cone of uncertainty.” The closer the storm gets, the less the uncertainty. However, how many residents heed the warnings and spend the lead in, boarding up their windows, sandbagging their house and leaving that location with their families? The majority of the population is proactive but think about how absurd it is to see that one person boarding their windows as the storm is raging on their doorstep. Certainly, is a daunting task holding a 4X* sheet of plywood in a gale storm. Yet, how many businesses fail to spend the requisite time developing and gaming the “what if” scenarios occur in their business. For instance, consider the following items:

• Black Swan Event – Named by Nassim Taleb to describe highly unlikely negative events that are seemingly impossible to predict. While no one knows when/if a pandemic, financial crisis, or world war will ever occur, there should be a “Break Glass in Case of Emergency” plan that at least provides the starting point for business to consider. There are an infinite number of events that could occur on a macro-level scale so the framework and action plan must be more generic, allowing for adaptability and allowances for specific conditions.
• Recessionary Markets – While hardly catastrophic, recessions happen and will always be a part of any economic cycle. What does this mean for the business in terms of backlog? Cost structure? Crews? Capital expenditures? While some leaders see a recessionary market as a time to hunker down, others will see this as an opportunity for strategic growth. Assuming there is enough preparation, astute leaders will capitalize.
• Customer/Market Attrition – Lose a customer? Not catastrophic unless that one customer is 50% of your business. More importantly, what happens if a sector disappears? For instance, what if your business specialized in tenant improvements for Blockbuster Video stores? Not only did they go away but the entire market vaporized.

These types of scenarios are also listed in terms of severity as well. The commensurate amount of internal deliberation should be reflected in the amount of time strategizing for the event. For instance, it is probably prudent to have more detailed mitigation plans to address losing a top customer/market as compared to the start of World War 3. Ultimately, the job of leadership is to be forward thinking and proactive.

Project Scale

Project managers, superintendents and foremen are some of the greatest optimists. Rainbows, unicorns and pots of gold are all we anticipate yet every project ends up with stormy skies, dragons and a bucket of “ahem” lead. The greatest project managers constantly demonstrate forward thinking and more importantly an affinity for worst case scenario situations. For instance, some of the following elements should be covered within your project risk register:

• Weather Impacts – Weather is always a wild card, and it appears to be getting worse and less predictable. We certainly don’t control the weather but are our productivity rates, schedules, etc. all based on best case scenarios? What is our back-up plan if we have unseasonable rain/snow? What are our hot weather best practices?
• Supply Chains – If we learned anything from the Pandemic, nothing is “standard” or “off the shelf.” What do you know about the worst-case scenario for all aspects of your material supply chain?
• Trade Contractor Participation – We never like to think a critical trade partner will disappear but what if that critical path trade partner goes bankrupt? Who is our back-up plan?
• Municipality Entanglements – While you can’t fight City Hall, you better have factored in the ramifications of how they will handle plan reviews, inspections, fees, etc.
• Customer Changes – While no customer has ever changed their mind – ahem – this is more about the customer changing the script. What happens if the customer downsizes? What happens if your contact goes away?

Once again, scenario planning can easily become an infinite exercise and the probability of each event must be factored to ensure the right amount of time is expended in “potential solution generation.”

Mike Tyson was famous for his quote, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” We are certainly not privy to what the airlines, banks, etc. had in place as back-up plans prior to the cyber outage. There may have been the most proactive plan sitting in a filing cabinet. Ultimately, the success of these plans will be measured on the outcomes. It is incumbent on everyone to have not only a relevant contingency plan, but also demonstrate confidence in the execution. Rather than cower behind the desk, everyone from the field to the top leader in charge has to act like they’ve been there before, even if they’ve never seen a zombie before.

About the author

As a principal with FMI, Gregg specializes in the areas of productivity and project management. He also leads FMI’s project management consulting practice. He has completed complex and sophisticated construction projects in several different niches and geographic markets. He has also worked as a construction manager and managed direct labor. FMI is a unique and fast-growing firm of professionals passionate about creating a better future for engineering and construction, infrastructure and the built environment throughout North America and around the world. For more information on FMI, please visit www.fminet.com or contact Schoppman by email at gschoppman@fminet.com.