The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, declined 6.3% in January to 272.7 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised December reading of 291.0. Over the month, commercial planning fell 7.2% and institutional planning momentum slowed by 4.4%.
“Planning momentum cooled in January across most commercial and institutional sectors,” said Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Data center projects continue to lead the way, but after elevated activity in late 2025, most nonresidential sectors are now easing into a more sustainable growth pattern.”
On the commercial side, planning momentum slowed across all commercial sectors apart from retail stores. Within institutional planning, education, healthcare and public building planning slowed in January – while recreational and religious building projects continued to expand.
Year-over-year, the DMI was up 29% when compared to January 2025. The commercial segment was up 26% (+17% when data centers are removed) and the institutional segment was up 34% over the same period.
A total of 35 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning throughout January. The largest commercial projects included the $500 million IEP Data Center (Project Hummingbird) in Monongahela Township, Pennsylvania, the $400 million Mountain Road Technology Park Data Center in Glen Allen, Virginia, and the $350 million Bitfarm Data Center in Nesquehoning, Pennsylvania. The largest institutional projects to enter planning were the $250 million USACE Barracks in Fort Hood, Texas, the $175 million UEPH Barracks at Joint Base Myer-Henderson in Arlington, Virginia, and the $148 million Eurofins Lancaster Biopharmaceutical Laboratory and Office Building in Lancaster, Pennsylvania.
The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.
All But 5 States Had Construction Unemployment Rates Below 8% in December 2025
The national December 2025 not seasonally adjusted construction unemployment rate was 5.0%, a 0.2% decrease from December 2024, according to a state-by-state analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on February 5 by Associated Builders and Contractors. The analysis found that 60% of states (30) had lower estimated construction unemployment rates over the same period, 17 had higher rates and three states (New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Texas) had the same rate. All but five states had construction unemployment rates below 8%.
Note that, as a result of the 2025 government shutdown, no October labor data were collected, so those data are missing/not available.
National NSA payroll construction employment was 12,000 higher than December 2024, its smallest year-over-year increase since March 2021 when it fell during the pandemic. Seasonally adjusted payroll construction employment was 8.3 million, or 9.1% above its pre-pandemic peak of 7.6 million.
Estimated state construction unemployment rates were lower than their pre-pandemic level in 60% of states. As of December 2025, 30 states had lower construction unemployment rates compared to December 2019, while 18 states had higher rates and two states (Georgia and New Mexico) had the same rate.
“The construction industry continues to contend with weaker demand from the headwinds of tariffs and supply disruptions pushing building materials prices up, increasing insurance costs and an uptick in immigration enforcement contributing to a shortage of skilled construction workers, which has added to pressure to raise wages and salaries,” said Bernard Markstein, president and chief economist of Markstein Advisors, who conducted the analysis for ABC. “On the positive side, a somewhat easier policy stance by the Federal Reserve has resulted in lower interest rates. Further declines in interest rates are likely this year. Adoption of software and equipment powered by artificial intelligence may help some companies to control costs and reap greater efficiency from their existing workforce.”
Recent Month-to-Month Fluctuations
In December, the national NSA construction unemployment rate climbed 0.9% from November. Three states (Alabama, Montana and New Mexico) had lower rates, 44 posted higher rates and three states (Alaska, Georgia and Mississippi) had the same estimated construction unemployment rates as in November.
The Top States
The six states with the lowest estimated NSA construction unemployment rates for December were:
- Hawaii, 2.0%
- Oklahoma, 2.5%
- Colorado, 2.7%
- Georgia, Indiana and Mississippi (tie), 2.8%
Both Hawaii and Indiana had their lowest December NSA estimated construction unemployment rate on record. Note that Hawaii’s unemployment rate is for construction plus mining and logging. Colorado posted its second-lowest December rate on record behind the 1.8% rate the state achieved in December 2021. Georgia and Oklahoma each had their third-lowest December construction unemployment rate on record.
The Bottom States
The five states with the highest September estimated NSA construction unemployment rates were:
- Illinois, 9.4%
- New Jersey, 10.1%
- Connecticut, 10.5%
- Rhode Island, 11.2%
- Minnesota, 13.4%
Rhode Island recorded its lowest December rate since its December 2022 rate of 8.9%.
Click here to view graphs of U.S. and state overall unemployment rates (Tab 1) and construction unemployment rates (Tab 2) showing the impact of the pandemic, including a graphing tool that creates a chart for multiple states. To better understand the basis for calculating unemployment rates and what they measure, check out the Background on State Construction Unemployment Rates.
Construction Job Openings Rebound in December, Up 87,000 Year Over Year
The construction industry had 292,000 job openings on the last day of December, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. JOLTS defines a job opening as any unfilled position for which an employer is actively recruiting. Industry job openings increased by 8,000 in December and are up by 87,000 from the same time last year.
“This release paints a slightly more upbeat picture of the construction industry’s labor force dynamics,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “The hiring rate rebounded from the historical lows seen in October and November, and industrywide job openings rose to the highest level since July.
“Despite this improvement, demand for construction workers remains subdued, as has been the case for several quarters. Fewer construction workers were hired in 2024 and 2025 than in any two-year period since 2015-2016. This recent weakness has not dampened contractor confidence, and ABC members on net expect to increase their staffing levels over the next six months, according to ABC’s Construction Confidence Index.”
ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator Falls To Four-Year Low in January; Contractor Confidence Grows
Associated Builders and Contractors reported that its Construction Backlog Indicator fell to 8.0 months in January, according to an ABC member survey conducted Jan. 20 to Feb. 3. The reading is down 0.2 months from December and 0.4 months from January 2025.
View ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator and Construction Confidence Index for January. View the full Construction Backlog Indicator and Construction Confidence Index data series.
Backlog continues to hold up better for larger contractors, rising over the past year for contractors with greater than $50 million in annual revenues while falling sharply for those with revenues below that threshold.
ABC’s Construction Confidence Index reading for sales, profit margins and staffing levels increased again in January. Sales expectations are better than they were one year ago, while profit margin and staffing expectations are slightly worse. The readings for all three components remain above the threshold of 50, indicating expectations for growth over the next six months.
“Backlog fell to a four-year low in January, yet contractors remain shockingly sanguine about the near-term outlook,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “Just 13% of contractors expect their sales to decrease over the next six months, the smallest share since February 2022. Despite that personal confidence, ABC members are far less optimistic about their competition; 46% of contractors expect that other contractors will see their sales decline over the next two quarters. Whether or not this personal optimism is justified will likely depend on the extent to which borrowing costs can decline in 2026.”
Double-digit Increases In Aluminum, Steel And Copper Costs Drive Up Producer Price Indexes For Construction Materials And Equipment In 2025
High Tariff Rates on Key Materials Appear to Be Enabling Domestic Producers to Make Substantial Price Increases, Making it Hard for Contractors to Know How Much to Bid for Future Projects
The producer price index for materials and services used in nonresidential construction rose 3.3 percent from December 2024 to December 2025, propelled by double-digit increases in aluminum, steel and copper prices, according to an analysis by the Associated General Contractors of America of government data released in January. Association officials noted that it appears that new tariffs are enabling domestic producers of key construction materials to raise prices.
“Even though these indexes are based on selling prices of domestic producers, it is clear that the steep tariffs on imported metals and products are enabling U.S. sellers to push up costs for construction materials and equipment,” said Ken Simonson, the association’s chief economist. “Construction costs are sure to rise further in 2026 as long as the current tariffs remain in place.”
The producer price index for aluminum mill shapes soared 30.5 percent from December 2024 to last December, the largest year-over-year increase since the supply-chain disruptions of early 2022. Simonson noted that the index has been accelerating every month since the president imposed a 50 percent tariff last June.
The index for steel mill products, which are also subject to a 50 percent tariff, jumped 17 percent in 2025, which was the steepest rise for that index since 2022. The index for copper and brass mill shapes climbed 11.8 percent last year. Imported products containing copper are also subject to a 50 percent tariff, Simonson noted.
“These higher prices are now showing up as well in the cost of construction equipment and machinery,” the economist added. “That index rose 5.6 percent in the latest 12 months, the most in two years. And with copper futures prices setting new records this month, the cost of copper in construction equipment and projects is sure to go even higher this year if the tariffs stay in place.”
Association officials continued to urge federal leaders to resolve a number of key trade disputes with China, Canada and other major trading partners. Having trade agreements in place will likely lead to lower tariff levels and provide the kind of pricing certainty contractors need to accurately bid new projects.
“It is hard for contractors to make reliable estimates on how much to charge for new construction projects when they don’t know how much prices will increase for key materials,” said Jeffrey D. Shoaf, the chief executive officer of the Associated General Contractors of America. “Getting fair trade agreements completed will provide the kind of tariff and price stability contractors need to predict future costs.”
View producer price index data.
