Dates & Figs – August 2024

Dates & Figs – August 2024

US Census

Total Construction

Construction spending during June 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,148.4 billion, 0.3 percent (±1.0 percent)* below the revised May estimate of $2,154.8 billion. The June figure is 6.2 percent (±1.6 percent) above the June 2023 estimate of $2,023.0 billion. During the first six months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,034.8 billion, 8.6 percent (±1.2 percent) above the $952.5 billion for the same period in 2023.

Private Construction

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,664.6 billion, 0.3 percent (±0.8 percent)* below the revised May estimate of $1,668.8 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $928.0 billion in June, 0.3 percent (±1.3 percent)* below the revised May estimate of $931.1 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $736.6 billion in June, 0.1 percent (±0.8 percent)* below the revised May estimate of $737.7 billion.

Public Construction

In June, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $483.9 billion, 0.4 percent (±1.8 percent)* below the revised May estimate of $486.0 billion. Educational construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $101.9 billion, 0.9 percent (±3.3 percent)* below the revised May estimate of $102.8 billion. Highway construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $143.5 billion, 0.4 percent (±4.6 percent)* below the revised May estimate of $144.1 billion.

ABC

The national June 2024 not seasonally adjusted construction unemployment rate was 3.3%, down 0.3% from the previous year, according to a state-by-state analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data released today by Associated Builders and Contractors. The analysis also found that 33 states had lower unemployment rates over the same period, two states were unchanged (Georgia and Michigan) and 15 states were higher.

National NSA payroll construction employment was 232,000 higher than in June 2023. Since February 2022, seasonally adjusted construction employment has exceeded its pre-pandemic peak of 7.6 million. As of June 2024, SA payroll construction employment stood at 8.25 million.

Indicating the relative tightness of the construction employment market, as of this June, 38 states had lower construction unemployment rates compared to June 2019, 11 states had higher rates and one state (Minnesota) was unchanged.

“Healthy economic growth and the prospect of lower interest rates in coming months, along with federal spending on infrastructure, have bolstered construction activity and employment,” said Bernard Markstein, president and chief economist of Markstein Advisors, who conducted the analysis for ABC. “As projects move forward, construction companies are hiring. The anticipation of future construction projects provides additional incentive to hire and train construction workers.”

Recent Month-to-Month Fluctuations

In June, 43 states had lower estimated construction unemployment rates than in May. Meanwhile, five states had higher rates and two (Michigan and New Hampshire) posted the same rate.

The Top Five States

The five states with the lowest estimated NSA construction unemployment rates for June were:

  1. North Dakota, 0.9%
  2. South Dakota, 1.0%
  3. Alaska and New Hampshire (tie), 1.3%
  4. Oklahoma and Oregon (tie), 1.7%

Alaska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Oregon each had their lowest June NSA estimated construction unemployment rate on record. North Dakota had the second largest year-over-year decline in its rate (down 1.3%) after Connecticut (down 2.1%). New Hampshire scored its second lowest June rate, behind last year’s 1.2% rate. South Dakota had its lowest June rate since 2001’s 0.7% rate.

The Bottom Five States

The five states with the highest June estimated NSA construction unemployment rates were:

  1. Ohio, 4.8%
  2. New Mexico, 4.9%
  3. Illinois, 6.1%
  4. New Jersey, 7.1%
  5. Rhode Island, 9.8%

New Mexico had its second lowest June NSA estimated construction unemployment rate behind its 2022 rate of 3.7%.

Click here to view graphs of U.S. and state overall unemployment rates (Tab 1) and construction unemployment rates (Tab 2) showing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, including a graphing tool that creates a chart for multiple states. To better understand the basis for calculating unemployment rates and what they measure, check out the Background on State Construction Unemployment Rates.

 

DODGE

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 7.9% in July to 216.3 (2000=100) from the revised June reading of 200.5. Over the month, commercial planning increased by 6.8%, and institutional planning expanded by 11.1%.

“While data centers have had an outsized influence on nonresidential planning activity in recent months, more momentum is building across many other major sectors and diversifying the story behind July’s growth,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “The potential Fed rate cut in September is becoming increasingly more likely, alongside slower inflation and weaker labor market conditions. This is likely driving owners and developers to remain optimistic about 2025 market conditions and pushing more projects into the planning queue.”

Within the commercial portion of the Index, growth was widespread across all segments. Data centers continued to play an important role in growth, and retail planning has been steadily accelerating over the past eight months. On the institutional side, healthcare was the primary driver of this month’s expansion. In July, the DMI was 17% higher than in July of 2023. The commercial segment was up 35% from year-ago levels, while the institutional segment was down 14% over the same period.

A total of 23 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning throughout July. The largest commercial projects included the $483 million Microsoft SAT82 Data Center in Castroville, Texas, and the $480 million Yorkville Data Center Campus in Little Rock Township, Illinois. The largest institutional projects to enter planning were the $325 million UCSF Children’s Hospital renovation in Oakland, California, and the $278 million Memorial Hermann Cypress Hospital expansion in Cypress, Texas.

The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.

 

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